One page for everything gold: spot & technicals, macro drivers, prediction-market odds, positioning flows — and yes, the astrology pillar, held to the same scoreboard as everything else. Every signal is weighted by its measured track record, not by belief.
Each pillar earns its weight from measured forecast skill (Brier score vs a random-walk baseline, 26-week rolling window). Defaults below are the engine's earned weights; drag to run your own scenario — the balance, composite and bull/bear split recompute live.
Snapshot from this issue — the living board rebuilds every 6 hours with item-level weights and decay.
Issue No. 9 · 2026-08-31 — Bottom line: the composite reads +12 (leaning bullish), 56% bull / 44% bear across the four scored pillars. Astrology pillar: 25% earned weight, hit rate 0.457 (n=15 scored calls). Not investment advice — this is a score
A single paper-trading bot runs the full stack — weekly regime, RSI, MACD, planetary bias, lunar tiers — with every trade, fee, and mistake published. It exists to keep the engine honest: red numbers display as loudly as green ones.
alerts.py) ships in the next update. This log will show real threshold crossings, regime flips, and pillar-direction changes as they fire to Telegram.Alert triggers: |price| crosses 50/200-DMA · weekly close beyond range boundaries · prediction-market move ≥15pts/week on Fed or geopolitics contracts · any pillar flips sign · composite crosses ±25 · central-bank monthly flow beyond ±30t.
| Pillar | Calls scored (26w) | Hit rate | Brier score ↓ | Skill vs random walk | Earned weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macro & Flows Real yields, DXY, Fed path, CB buying, ETF flows |
0 | — | — | +0% | 25% (probation) |
| Price Action MA regime, RSI, structure, volume |
8 | 59.3% | 0.275 | +0% | 25% (probation) |
| Prediction Markets Polymarket & Kalshi: Fed, CPI, geopolitics, gold brackets |
4 | 69.6% | 0.233 | +2% | 25% (probation) |
| Astrology Pre-registered transit rules only |
15 | 45.7% | 0.257 | +0% | 25% (probation) |
Every call is pre-registered. A signal is only scoreable if it was logged before its window opened, with a direction, a probability, a horizon and a threshold. No retrofitting, no "the transit explains the dip" after the fact — that discipline is what was missing from v1.
Probabilities, not prophecies. Pillars emit statements like "62% that gold closes above $4,200 within 5 sessions." These are scored with the Brier score, which rewards both being right and knowing how sure you were.
Weights are earned, not assigned. Each pillar's weight is proportional to its skill above a random-walk baseline over a rolling 26-week window, updated with exponential decay (recent skill counts more). A pillar that can't beat a coin flip decays toward a 5% probationary floor, then to zero after two failed quarters.
The astrology question answers itself. Whether astrology "works" for gold stops being a debate: it is a number in the table above, recomputed weekly. Currently it earns 25%. The engine is agnostic; the scoreboard is not.
Baselines keep everyone honest. The composite is benchmarked weekly against (a) random walk, (b) simple 20-day momentum, (c) "always bullish." If the engine can't beat all three over a rolling year, the whole methodology gets revised — that rule is itself part of the methodology.
Regime awareness. The price-action pillar reads the live weekly/daily trend regime (bull, bear, or neutral) directly from moving-average structure — not a separate "hidden layer," just what the MAs say right now: weekly BULL, daily BULL. Tracking pillar skill separately per regime (does an edge hold up differently in trends vs ranges?) is on the roadmap, not built yet.
Live value where a real feed exists — same sources as Stats for Gold Nerds and the living board, never a second hardcoded number for the same fact. An em-dash means the feed isn't wired yet, not that the parameter doesn't matter.
| Parameter | Now | Why it matters | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spot XAU/USD | $4,441.79 | The price itself; everything keys off it | Binance PAXGUSDT |
| COMEX futures & basis | — (see roadmap) | Contango/backwardation flags physical stress | CME Group — see roadmap |
| US 10y real yield | 2.45% | The single strongest macro driver (inverse) | FRED: DFII10 |
| Dollar Index (DXY proxy) | 118.7479 | Gold is priced in dollars (inverse) | FRED: DTWEXBGS (Broad Dollar Index, not ICE DXY) |
| Fed path odds | Sep 16 FOMC: hold 47% / hike 52% · Oct 28 FOMC: hold 69% / hike 28% | Rate expectations move real yields | Kalshi FOMC-decision markets |
| Central-bank net buying | — (see roadmap) | The structural bid of the 2020s | World Gold Council monthly |
| ETF holdings flow | — (see roadmap) | Western investor demand in real time | World Gold Council ETF flows |
| COT managed-money net long | — (see roadmap) | Crowding = squeeze fuel both ways | CFTC weekly COT — see roadmap |
| 50 / 200-DMA | $4,287 / $4,516 | Regime definition; golden/death crosses | Computed from Binance candles |
| RSI-14 (daily) | 47.6 | Momentum & exhaustion | Computed from Binance candles |
| Gold/Silver ratio | — (see roadmap) | Relative-value & risk appetite gauge | Derived from spots — see roadmap |
| Gold miners (GDX) vs gold | — (see roadmap) | Miners lead at turns; divergence warns | Any equity API — see roadmap |
| Shanghai premium | — (see roadmap) | Chinese physical appetite | SGE vs LBMA spread — see roadmap |
| India landed premium/discount | — (see roadmap) | World's #2 physical market; price-elastic | IBJA vs import parity — see roadmap |
| Geopolitical risk markets | US-Iran military escalation risk: 14% · Hormuz traffic normalizing: 26% | Safe-haven premium, quantified | Polymarket geopolitics contracts |
| CPI / inflation expectations | 65% (Kalshi consensus crossover) | The inflation-hedge bid | Kalshi CPI brackets / FRED |
| Oil (Brent) | — (see roadmap) | Inflation passthrough & risk proxy | Any commodities API — see roadmap |
| Lunar/transit calendar | Krishna Ashtami (3rd Qtr) | Astro pillar inputs — pre-registered only | Swiss Ephemeris (computed live) |